Repository of Research and Investigative Information

Repository of Research and Investigative Information

Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences

A time series analysis of environmental and metrological factors impact on cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in an endemic area of Dehloran, Iran

(2017) A time series analysis of environmental and metrological factors impact on cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in an endemic area of Dehloran, Iran. Environmental Science and Pollution Research.

[img] Text
s11356-017-8962-0

Download (112kB)

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between the environmental and metrological variables and cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) transmission and its prediction in a region susceptible to this disease prevalence using a time series model. The accurate locations of 4437 CL diagnosed from 2011 to 2015 were obtained to be used in the time series model. Temperature, number of days with temperature over 30 °C, and number of earthquake were related to CL incidence using the Seasonal Auto-correlated Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model according to the Box-Jenkins method. In addition, the relationship between land use and surface soil type in 500- and 1000-m radius around the CL patients were investigated. The SARIMA models showed significant associations between environmental and meteorological variables and CL incidence adjusted for seasonality and auto-correlation. The result indicated that there are need more robust preventive programs in earthquake-prone areas with high temperature and inceptisol soil type than other areas. In addition, the region with these characteristics should be considered as high-risk areas for CL prevalence.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: Cutaneous leishmaniasis Environmental factors Earthquake Time series analysis
Subjects: environmental health
Divisions: Education Vice-Chancellor Department > Faculty of Health > Department of Health Education and Health Promotion
Depositing User: مركز تحقيقات عوامل اجتماعی درارتقا سلامت خليج فارس
URI: http://eprints.hums.ac.ir/id/eprint/2989

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item